基于投入产出动态分析的煤炭产业波及效应研究

COAL INDUSTRY RADIATION EFFECT BASED ON INPUT/OUTPUT DYNAMIC ANALYSIS

煤炭作为我国能源安全的基石,其与关联产业的波及关系关乎国民经济的稳定与发展。文章首先基于2002—2015年全国投入产出表及延长表,动态分析煤炭产业与其关联产业的波及效应。然后,基于2012年全国投入产出表,构建投入产出价格模型,研究煤炭价格波动对关联产业产品价格的影响,进一步说明煤炭产业的波及效应。结果表明:电力热力的生产供应部门、金属冶炼和压延加工品部门、化学产品部门、非金属矿物制品部门为煤炭产业波及影响较大的4个部门,其经济依存关系最为密切且产业间的关联度不稳定,煤炭产业的感应度大于影响力,此外,上述产业对煤炭价格变化较为敏感,特别是电力热力的生产和供应业,敏感度达到0.0029。最后,对煤电融合、煤钢融合、煤化融合及传统能源与新能源融合等多元化发展提出对策建议。

Coal as China’s energy security cornerstone plays a key role in economy along with its radiation to correlated industries.This paper uses nation’s input/output 2002 to 2015 to dynamically analyze the radiation effect between coal industry and its correlated industries.The price model established on input/output table indicates a radiation of coal industry on its correlated industries,with four largely impacted sectors supply and production of electricity and heating,metallurgy and processing,chemicals and industrial minerals on their close economic dependence but a unstable industrial correlation,induction more than influence.The stated-above industries are sensitive to coal price change,especially the electricity and heating production and supply,with sensitiveness up to 0.0029.Diversified suggestions are presented for coal-electricity coalition,coal-steel coalition,coal-chemicals coalition and fossil energy-new energy coalition.