基于灰色-偏最小二乘组合模型的中国天然气需求预测

NATURAL GAS DEMAND FORECAST IN CHINA BASED ON GRAY-PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE COMBINATION MODEL

在世界能源低碳化的趋势下,天然气以其高效、清洁、安全等优点成为低碳能源的重要组成部分。我国正处于低碳能源转型的特殊时期,经济发展进入新常态,天然气作为重要的基础性能源,对国民经济的快速发展起着关键的支撑作用。首先,利用灰色模型对我国天然气需求各类影响因素的发展趋势进行了预测分析。随后,考虑到天然气需求影响因素之间具有共线性的特点,又利用偏最小二乘回归模型对影响因素进行回归建模,以克服变量之间的多重共线性对预测结果的影响。最后,利用回归方程对2018—2027年我国天然气需求量进行预测,预测结果显示2018—2027年天然气需求量呈现稳定持续缓慢增长的趋势,其中2023年会出现小幅度的下降,但是总需求的年增长率保持在10%左右,同时天然气的消费占比在2025年将会超过10%。

Natural gas is a vital part of low carbon energy by its efficiency,clean and safe feature under the world’s low carbon economy.China is currently at the critical stage of transforming to low carbon economy.Natural gas as a basic energy supports the fast growth of economy.This paper uses gray model to predict the factors of natural gas demands and their developing trend,and applies partial least square regression model to study factors in consideration of their mutual linear attributes.Regression function is applied to forecast China’s demand for natural gas from 2018 to 2027 with the result showing a stable but slow increasing trend,a little down in 2023,annual growth rate of gross demand is at 10%.Natural gas consumption proportion will be over 10%in 2025.