中国能源战略规划研究——基于能源消费、能源生产和能源结构的预测

CHINA’S ENERGY STRATEGY PLANNING BASED ON PREDICTION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION,PRODUCTION AND STRUCTURE

能源消费量、能源生产量和能源结构是一个国家进行能源发展规划时的重要参考指标。本文利用ARIMA模型预测我国短期的能源消费量和能源生产量,再利用马尔科夫链预测我国能源消费结构的变化情况。结合"十三五"能源规划提出的发展目标,对我国能源战略规划的实现情况进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,到"十三五"结束,能源消费总量可以达到预期目标,但能源生产总量稍有不足;煤炭消费的减少以及非化石能源消费的增加情况足以达到预期目标,但天然气消费略有不足,到2025年,预计能源自给情况改善,能源消费结构中煤炭比重进一步下降但天然气消费增长缓慢。针对这些情况,本文建议一方面坚持对能源消费总量的控制,提高能源效率,另一方面重点加强油气和非化石能源的供应能力,着重推进天然气市场的可持续健康发展。

Energy consumption,production and structure mark a nation’s energy development strategy.This paper uses ARIMA model to predict China’s energy consumption and production in a short term,and applies Markov to forecast the change in China’s energy consumption structure,and studies on cases the execution of China’s energy strategic planning combined with China’s"13th Five Years Plan".Energy consumption may reach the expected objectives by the end of"13th Five Years Plan",but energy production will be insufficient.Reduction in coal use and increase in non-fossil energy could be expected,but gas consumption is less.Self-supply of energy will be improved to 2025,coal use proportion in energy consumption structure will further decreasing with a slowly increasing in gas use.This paper presents suggestions on controlling gross energy consumption,increasing energy efficiency,boosting supply of oil-gas and non-fossil resources,and focusing on a sound development of gas market.