上海老年人口变化对机构养老的需求分析

Analysis on the Demand of the Aged Population Change for Nursing Institution in Shanghai

从老年人口的规模变化、结构变化、地理空间和行政区划分布特征三个方面分析了上海机构养老在数量、设施类型、服务项目和空间布局方面的具体需求。上海人口老龄化与高龄化趋势都比较严重,老年人口抚养系数远高于少儿抚养系数,这些都导致上海机构养老的需求也在不断增长。老年人口中的高龄和独居老人不断增多、女性老龄人口多于男性老龄人口的特征,对于上海的机构养老也提出了特殊的要求。

From the aspects of the scale,structure and spatial distribution characteristics of the elderly population in Shanghai,this paper analyses the specific needs of the number,type of facilities,service items and spatial distribution of nursing institution in Shanghai.From the collected data of the elderly population,the trend of aging in Shanghai is quite serious,and the dependency coefficient of the elderly population is much higher than that of children;among the elderly population,women are the main part.From the spatial distribution of the elderly population,the central urban area is still densely populated by the elderly.The trend of aging in central area is more severe than that of suburbs.However,the distribution of the elderly population has a trend of transferring from the central urban area to the suburbs,and mainly to the suburbs surrounding the central area.