增值税简易征收政策是否会影响企业利润率?——基于注册门槛值的断点回归分析

Does the Simplified VAT Collection Policy Affect the Profit of Enterprises?——A Fuzzy Regression-Discontinuity Analysis Based on the Threshold Value of Registration

本文利用全国税收调查数据,以增值税简易征收政策为背景,利用模糊断点回归方法探讨了不同征收模式对企业利润率和未来销售额的影响。研究发现,相比于标准征收,简易征收程序显著降低了企业利润率和销售额。上述结果经过随机分配处理效应和伪断点等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。此外,机制分析发现,凭票抵税的增值税征收管理制度发挥了重要作用。为减轻自身税收负担,企业很少自无法开具增值税专用发票的企业处购入商品,因此简易征收模式下企业的市场交易机会受限。最后,扩展分析发现,主管税务机关加强对销售额低于门槛值的企业的监管力度能够大幅提升企业选择标准征收程序的比例。本文为推进财税体制改革,完善税收征管方式提供了经验证据。

Using nationwide tax survey data and the background of the simplified VAT collection policy,this study employs a fuzzy regression-discontinuity method to explore the impact of different collection modes on the profit margin and future sales of enterprises.The study finds that compared to standard collection procedure,the simplified collection procedure significantly reduces the profit margin and sales of enterprises.These results persist after conducting a series of robustness tests,including random assignment treatment effects and pseudo-discontinuity.Furthermore,mechanism analysis reveals that the VAT collection management system with ticketbased offset plays an important role.In order to alleviate their own tax burden,enterprises rarely purchase goods from enterprises that cannot issue dedicated VAT invoices.As a result,the market transaction opportunities for enterprises are limited under the simplified collection mode.Finally,the extended analysis finds that strengthening the supervision of enterprises which sales below the threshold value by the tax authorities can significantly increase the proportion of enterprises choosing the standard collection procedure.This study provides empirical evidence for promoting fiscal and tax system reforms and improving tax collection and management methods.