我国“双碳”政策量化评价与优化研究——基于“结构-工具-效力”的分析框架

Quantitative Evaluation and Optimization of Domestic“Double Carbon”Policy——Based on“Structure-Tool-Effectiveness”Framework

“双碳”政策是实现我国绿色发展的重大战略,对相关政策进行量化评价有利于完善政策内容,推动政策目标的顺利完成。本文以政府出台的“双碳”政策文本为研究对象,构建了包括政策结构、政策工具与政策效力的三维分析框架,进而采用文本挖掘方法与PMC指数模型进行量化评价与分析。研究发现,“双碳”政策以“通知”的政策形式为主,效率较高而灵活性偏弱,央地政府均有相关政策出台,但政府部门间的联合发文量相对欠缺;政策工具的使用侧重于供给型与环境型,需求型政策工具运用略显不足;政策效力整体表现优良,但在政策内容和政策保障方面尚有较大提升空间。鉴于此,本文从强化政策顶层设计、增强需求型政策工具功能、完善政策保障措施以及改进政策内容四个方面提出了针对性对策建议。

“Double carbon”policy is a major strategy to achieve green development in China.Quantitative evaluation of relevant policies is conducive to improve policy content and promote the achievement of policy goals.Taking the“double carbon”policy text issued by the government as the research object,a three-dimensional analysis framework including policy structure,policy tools and policy effectiveness is constructed,and then the text mining method and PMC index model are used for quantitative evaluation and analysis.The research finds that the“double carbon”policy is mainly takes the form of“notification”,which is more efficient and less flexible.Both central and local governments have issued relevant policies,but the number of joint documents issued by government departments is relatively insufficient;the use of policy tools focuses on supply-oriented,environmental-oriented,and demand-oriented policy tools are slightly insufficient;the overall performance of policy effectiveness is good,but there is still much room for improvement in terms of policy content and policy guarantee.In view of this,targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from four aspects:strengthening the top-level design of policies,enhancing the functions of demand-oriented policy instrument,improving policy guarantees,and improving policy content.