发达地区公共服务支出实现了供需匹配吗?——以广东省及其21个地级市为例

Does Public Service Expenditure in Developed Areas Achieve Supply and Demand Matching?——The Case of Guangdong Province

本文以广东省为例,利用2007—2016年全省时间序列和21个地级市面板数据就公共教育、医疗、社会保障与就业、社区治理和公共安全五个方面对广东地区的公共服务支出进行了深入研究。通过构建公共服务支出的供需匹配模型发现:(1)2007—2016年,广东公共服务支出并没有达到供需匹配状态,其中公共安全和社会管理支出出现严重不足,医疗卫生出现较为不足,公共教育和社会保障及就业支出则出现略为不足;(2)从各区域分布来看,公共服务支出水平在各地均有一定程度的供给不足现象,需要针对各地常住人口规模进行有效协调。公共服务支出的供需拥挤程度与支出水平和常住人口规模存在一定关联,应针对不同公共服务项目进行合理规划,加强科学评估和完善相关制度,逐步实现公共服务支出水平与常住人口规模相匹配的社会发展目标。

Taking Guangdong as an example, this paper makes an analysis of public service expenditure in Guangdong by using the time series of the whole province and panel data of 21 prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2016 in five aspects, which contain public education, medical care, social security and employment, community governance and public safety. Using the supply-demand matching model of public service expenditure, we find that:(1)From 2007 to 2016, Guangdong’s public service expenditure has not reached the level of supply-demand matching, in which public security and social management expenditure are seriously inadequate, medical and health care are relatively inadequate, while the public education and social security and employment expenditure are slightly inadequate;(2) In terms of regional distribution, the level of public service expenditure has a certain degree of insufficient supply in various places, which needs to be effectively coordinated according to the size of the permanent population. The crowding degree of public service expenditure is related to the level of expenditure and the scale of resident population. We should make rational planning for different public service projects, strengthen scientific evaluation and improve relevant systems, and gradually realize the social development goal of matching public service expenditure with the scale of resident population.