服务业开放阻碍制造业就业了吗:基于行业异质性的视角

Has the opening of the service sector hindered manufacturing employment:A perspective based on industry heterogeneity

利用2000—2021年中国进出口数据和制造业行业数据,构建服务业开放水平指标,使用Bartik工具变量、PSM-DID等方法实证检验服务业开放对制造业不同行业就业规模和就业结构的影响和机制。研究表明:第一,服务业开放显著促进了制造业就业规模的提升,但在就业结构上,服务业开放对劳动密集型行业产生就业创造效应,同时对资本密集型行业产生就业破坏效应,从而造成了制造业就业极化现象;第二,服务业开放通过技术溢出和成本节约两种效应提升制造业的就业规模,也正是这两种效应在制造业不同行业中的作用机制差异造成了就业极化。研究结论对保持制造业份额基本稳定、促进两业融合和加快构建新发展格局具有一定政策借鉴意义。

Using Chinese import and export data and manufacturing industry data from 2000-2021,this paper constructs indicators of the level of services liberalization and empirically examines the effects and mechanisms of services liberalization on employment size and employment structure in different manufacturing industries using Bartik instrumental variables,PSM-DID,and other methods.The study shows that,firstly,service sector opening significantly contributes to the increase of employment scale in manufacturing industry,but in terms of employment structure,service sector opening generates employment creation effect on labor-intensive industries while generating employment destruction effect on capital-intensive industries,thus causing the phenomenon of employment polarization in manufacturing industry;secondly,service sector opening enhances the employment scale in manufacturing industry through two effects of technology spillover and cost saving,and it is Second,the opening up of the service sector increases the employment scale of the manufacturing industry through two effects:technology spillover and cost saving,and it is the difference in the mechanism of these two effects in different manufacturing industries that causes the employment polarization.The conclusions have certain policy implications for maintaining the basic stability of the share of manufacturing,promoting the integration of the two sectors and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern.