房地产税对住房租赁价格的影响:来自重庆的经验证据

Research on the Influence of Housing Rental Price from the Property Taxes:Empirical Research from Chongqing

在高房价的现实背景下,要实现城市居民"居者有其屋",住房租赁市场发挥着重要作用,但高房租却成为"租者有其屋"的重要障碍。有鉴于此,本文基于2011年重庆市房地产税试点改革这一自然实验,利用合成控制法评估了房地产税对城市住房租赁价格的影响。研究发现,开征房地产税在短期内对住房租赁价格有显著抑制作用,在重庆房地产税试点政策实施一年内,其住房租赁价格平均每月相较于潜在价格下降了1.31元/m^2,降幅达到8.12%;但从长期来看,房地产税对住房租赁价格的负向影响较小且不显著,住房租赁价格也重新恢复上升趋势。本文的研究结论不仅揭示了房地产税在我国住房租赁市场的价格效应,也为我国政府通过房地产税来调节住房租赁价格提供了理论支持与经验证据。

In the context of high housing prices,the housing rental market plays an important role in realizing the"home ownership"of urban residents,but high rent has become a major obstacle to the"home ownership of tenants".Therefore,based on the natural experiment in Chongqing of pilot reform on property tax in 2011,this paper introduces the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of property tax policy on urban housing rental price.The research found that the introduction of the property tax has a significant restraining effect on the housing rental price in the short term.Within one year after the implementation of the property tax pilot policy in Chongqing,the housing rental price decreased by an average 1.31 yuan/m^2 per month relative to its potential price,and declined by up to 8.12%.However,in the long run,the negative impact of property tax on the housing rental price is small and insignificant,and the housing rental price shows an upward trend again.The research conclusion of this paper not only reveals the price effect of property tax in China’s housing rental market,but also provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for the Chinese government to restrain housing rental price by perfecting the property tax.