长江经济带水运对经济发展的空间效应研究

Spatial Effect of water transportation to Economic Development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone

基于长江经济带2010~2018年相关数据,运用GeoDa软件与Stata软件进行分析,探究水运对经济发展的影响。利用熵值法确权后得出水运发展指数,将其作为解释变量进行计算空间效应。研究结果表明:长江经济带地区经济发展呈现显著的空间正相关,90.9%的地区呈现高高聚集或低低聚集;水运对地区经济增长存在正的空间效应,对于长江经济带内部某一地区而言,长江经济带整个区域的水运发展指数每增加1%,该地区的人均GDP增加0.577%;某一地区的经济发展不仅受自身水运发展水平的影响,也受长江经济带内部其他地区的影响,间接效应大于直接效应,其他地区水运发展指数每增加1%,该地区的GDP增加0.405%,空间溢出效应明显。

The data of the Yangtze River Economic Zone in the period of 2010—2018 are processed by means of software GeoDa and Stata to investigate the effect of water transportation to economic development in the area.The water transport development index is defined through weighing with entropy method and taken as the explanatory variable for calculating the spatial effect.The research indicates that there is positive spatial correlation between economic development and water transport.For a district within the economic zone,1%increase of water transport index is corresponding to 0.577%growth of the per-capita gross domestic product.Spatial spillover effect is obvious with noticeable mutual influence among sister districts,more often indirectly than directly.For 1%increase of water transport index in sister district,0.405%GDP growth can be seen in the district.