美元长期走弱趋势下人民币波动中升值

RMB Appreciating with Fluctuations while USD Going Weak in the Long Run

人民币汇率波动主要来自比较因素和绝对因素两个层面,未来,美元长期走弱趋势已经确立,但短期内可能阶段性回稳;人民币过快升值对我国的进出口和金融稳定都会带来较大不确定性,货币当局可能出台政策进行市场化调控,加之交易方面多空力量博弈,从而制约人民币单边升值。综合考量,人民币或在双向波动中升值。

There are mainly two types of factors that contribute to RMB exchange rate fluctuations:relative factors and internal factors.In the future,the trend of the dollar going weak for the long run has been established,yet phased stabilization of the dollar could be expected in the short term;too-rapid RMB appreciation will pose greater uncertainties to China’s import and export as well as financial stability.The RMB appreciation may be curbed as the monetary authority may introduce policies of market-based regulation,and the long-short trading forces in the market will also play a role.With most of the factors considered,the RMB may appreciate amid two-way fluctuations.