待时而动——2020年利率回顾与展望

Biding for the Time——Review of Bond Interest Rates in 2020 and Outlook

2020年债券利率在疫情的影响下出现V型反转。展望2021年,经济复苏的态势有望延续,稳定宏观杠杆率的重要性将提高,使债券利率继续面临上升的压力。不过,进入2021年下半年后,信用扩张放缓对经济增长的影响或逐渐显现,债券利率上升的压力或减轻,甚至可能出现利率的拐点。

In 2020,the bond interest rates have presented a V-shaped movement under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.Looking into 2021,economic recovery is expected to continue,the importance of stablizing the macro leverage ratio will increase,and the bond interest rates will remain pressured to go upward.However,after entering the second half of2021,as the impact of the credit expansion slowdown on economic growth may gradually emerge,the pressure for the bond interest rates to rise may be mitigated,and there might even be an inflection point in the bond rates.