人民币汇率走向长期升值了吗?

RMB Going Strong in the Long Run?

近来人民币强势表现使得市场高度关注人民币汇率,人民币升值趋势是否能够得到延续?文章分析了当前人民币走强的原因、汇率升值可能带来的经济影响以及目前的央行态度等,并展望后续人民币汇率走势;认为长期来看,人民币汇率或表现为斜率放缓的升值走势,而短期来看人民币汇率或为震荡走势,与此同时仍应防范全球疫情和美国大选等风险事件下可能导致的人民币汇率贬值回调风险。

The recent strong performance of the RMB has drawn close attention of the market to the RMB exchange rate.Is the appreciation trend of the RMB sustainable?The article analyzes the causes behind such strong performance of the RMB,possible economic impacts of such exchange rate appreciation as well as the current attitude of the central bank,and takes an outlook into the future trend of the RMB exchange rate.The article holds that in the long run,the RMB exchange rate may present an appreciation trend with a flatter slope,while in the short run it may fluctuate.The risk of RMB correction and depreciation should be guarded against facing such events as the global pandemic and the US election.