燃油税、融资约束与企业行为——基于DSGE模型的分析

Fuel Tax, Financing Constraints and Firm Behavior: An Analysis Based on a DSGE Model

征收燃油税在实现节能减排的同时也会增加企业的财务负担。如何在保护环境的同时减少对经济的冲击,有赖于对燃油税的科学评估。本文构建了一个包含燃油税和融资约束的随机动态一般均衡模型,并基于1995年第1季度至2018年第2季度的数据对相关参数进行了校准和估计,系统考察了融资约束下征收燃油税对环境经济以及企业行为的影响。研究结果发现:征收燃油税对促进节能减排有显著效果;但同时也会抑制消费、投资和产出,增加失业,对经济产生负影响。此外,融资约束会通过金融加速器的作用放大燃油税冲击的影响。而且,当融资约束越强时,降低燃油税对经济的刺激作用也越明显。

China officially implemented the fuel tax in 2009,and has since increased the fuel tax rate three times.To some extent,the imposition of fuel tax helps energy conservation and emission reduction,and hence alleviating environmental pressures.However,it also increases the cost of consumption and production.In the case of firms facing financing constraints,it adds extra financial burdens.According to the World Bank’s report,75%of non-financial listed firms in China list financing constraints as the main obstacle to corporate development,the highest among 80 countries(Claessens and Tzioumis,2006).Financing constraints has become one of the important bottlenecks restricting China’s economic development and transformation.As a tax on corporate financial expenses,fuel tax will inevitably affect the firms’investment and financing behavior,and hence have an impact on the real economy through financial accelerators.The impact of the fuel tax on the household consumption of refined oil products and the investment and production behavior of firms with financing constraints is examined.A stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with fuel tax and financing constraints is constructed for analysis.The model is embedded with oil inventory and two production sectors,the consumer goods sector and the refined oil sector.The relevant parameters are calibrated and estimated by Bayesian techniques based on the China’s macro data from the first quarter of 1995 to the second quarter of 2018.The simulation and comparation analysis are conducted using the tool of Dynare for Matlab.The findings are as follows.First,the imposition of fuel tax has a significant effect on promoting energy conservation and reducing carbon emission.Second,it restrains consumption,investment and output,increases unemployment and hence has a negative impact on the economy.Third,financing constraints can amplify the impact of fuel tax shocks through the role of financial accelerators,and the tighter the financing constraints,the stronger the stimulating effect of reducing fuel tax on the economy.These findings help to understand the transmission mechanism of fuel tax and its impact on the investment and financing behavior of firms with financing constraints,and also provide an analytical tool for relevant policy formulation and simulation.