基于多主体仿真的大群体应急决策风险致因分析

Risk-causing Analysis of Large Group Emergency Decision-making Based on Multi-agent Simulation

大群体应急决策风险来源众多,且对决策的影响不容忽视。本文从个体因素和群体因素两方面对大群体应急决策风险进行系统识别,并将各风险因素与两类群体效应(认知冲突和关系冲突)进行关联,建立大群体应急决策风险致因体系。在此基础上,设置由个体认可度、群体结构、沟通方式、决策策略和外部影响组成的仿真变量,然后基于观点动力学利用Netlogo工具建立大群体应急决策风险致因多主体仿真模型,最后通过案例模拟得出各风险因素致因机理的一般规律。仿真结果表明:控制高认可度决策主体的比例,增加聚集间交互,采取必要的预见性措施,对降低决策风险,提高决策共识速度,应对决策环境的高动态性具有积极作用。研究有助于掌握大群体应急决策风险因素的组成及其影响规律,为应急决策的策略引导提供参考和借鉴。

There are many sources of risk in large group emergency decision-making,and their impacts on decision-making cannot be ignored.If these risks cannot be controlled effectively,they will become a new source of risk,further deteriorating the situation,and then may lead to poor rescue performance,or even rescue failure.The risks in large group emergency decision-making are systematically identified from the aspects of individual factors and group factors,and the relationship between each risk factor and two group effects is explored,namely cognitive conflict and relationship conflict,then a large group emergency decision-making risk-causing system is established.On this basis,the simulation variables consisting of individual acceptance,group structure,interaction mode,decision strategy and decision-making environment are set and the multi-agent simulation model of risk-causing for large group emergency decision-making is established based on opinion dynamics by using Netlogo tool.Finally,the general rules of the causal mechanisms of each risk factor are obtained by case simulation.The simulation results show that the fusion and integration of different information and perspectives is the key driving force of risk control for large group emergency decision-making with high complexity and uncertainty.It can effectively control the risk and ensure the efficiency of large group emergency decision-making after establishing the optimal decision-making group,increasing the participation and interaction scope of decision-makers,promoting more comprehensive information sharing,ensuring sufficient and efficient exchange of opinions,forming decision-making consensus with maximum efficiency,and maintaining a high predictability of the dynamics of external impacts in the decision-making environment.Decision conflict is taken as a representation of decision risk,and innovatively the research of large group emergency decision is intensified from the decision conflict direction to the decision risk direction,which is the expansion and integration of large group emergency decision research field,and helpful to grasp the composition of risk factors and their influencing rules in large groups emergency decision-making,and can provide reference and guidance for strategy selection in emergency decision-making.