基于模糊Bow-tie模型的大型展览火灾风险评价研究

Risk Assessment of Fire in Large-scale Exhibitions Based on Fuzzy Bow-tie Model

消防安全关乎大型展览能否顺利举办,然而受展览火灾风险因素复杂、事故样本数据缺乏等影响,很难对火灾风险进行量化评价。为了有效评价大型展览火灾风险,本文基于模糊Bow-tie模型构建了适用于大型展览的量化火灾风险评价方法。首先,利用模糊集合理论和专家打分相结合的方法分析火灾风险因素发生的模糊概率;其次,基于AHP法和模糊综合评价法对展览火灾影响的严重程度进行评估,并在改进传统风险矩阵的基础上进行风险评级。最后,将上述风险评价方法应用在评价天津市J展览火灾风险上,实例验证评价模型的有效性。结果表明:模糊Bow-tie模型克服了展览火灾样本数据缺乏及专家评价主观性问题,实现评估由定性到定量的转变,可以为主承办方的安全管理提供决策支持。

Fire safety is related to the normal holding of large-scale exhibitions.However,in reality,it is difficult to quantify the risk due to the complex fire risk factors of exhibitions and the lack of accident sample data.In order to effectively evaluate the fire risk of large-scale exhibitions and ensure the safety of activities,a quantitative fire risk assessment method for large-scale exhibitions is established.Firstly,the fuzzy probability of fire risk factors is analyzed by combining fuzzy set theory and expert scoring method.Then,based on AHP method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the severity of exhibition fire impact is evaluated,and the traditional risk matrix is improved to carry out risk rating.Finally,the above risk assessment method is applied to the fire risk assessment of Tianjin J Exhibition,and the effectiveness of the evaluation model is verified by the example.The results shows that the fuzzy Bow-tie model overcomes the problems of lack of fire sample data and subjectivity of expert evaluation,and achieves the transformation from qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation,and can provide decision support for the safety management of the main organizers.