中国制造业产能过剩的测度与分析

Measurement and Analysis of Overcapacity in China’s Manufacturing Industry

根据中国制造业2001-2017年数据,运用数据包络分析法(DEA)对全国整体和各子行业的产能利用率、技术效率和设备利用率进行测算,并对整体和各子行业的产能过剩情况进行分析。结果表明,中国制造业整体的产能利用率过低,存在严重的产能过剩情况;分行业来看,产能利用率在正常值范围内的只有少数行业,部分行业产能不足,多数行业存在产能过剩的情况,其中还有部分行业的产能过剩情况尤为严重;技术效率和设备利用率偏低,是造成产能利用率过低的主要原因。

Based on the data of China’s manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2017,this paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA)to measure the productivity utilization rate,technical efficiency and equipment utilization rate of the whole country and various sub-industries,and to analyze the overcapacity of the whole and sub-industries.The results show that the overall productivity utilization rate of China’s manufacturing industry is too low,and there is a serious situation of overcapacity.In terms of different industries,there are only a few industries whose productivity utilization rate is within the normal range.Some industries have insufficient productivity.Most industries have overcapacity,and situations are more serious in some industries;low technical efficiency and equipment utilization rate are the main reasons for the low productivity utilization rate.