考虑需求响应复杂不确定性的电–气互联系统动态概率能流计算

Dynamic Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation for Interconnected Electricity-gas System Considering Complex Uncertainties of Demand Response

随着未来电网与其他能源系统间的耦合,传统的电力需求侧响应将逐步向着可兼容不同能源形式转换的综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)的方向发展。为有效评估IDR对综合供能系统的影响,该文提出一种计及IDR复杂不确定性的动态概率能流计算方法。以区域级电-气耦合系统(interconnected electricity-gas energy system,IEGES)为例,首先通过深入分析IEGES下不同类型用能负荷的可调特性,建立一种基于Z-number方法描述的IDR不确定模型。该文所提模型不仅能够有效描述非直控型IDR项目中用户响应行为的天然随机性,还充分考虑基础信息可信度对建模过程的影响,因此可更为客观地反映IDR不确定性在IEGES中的真实作用效果。通过对IDR模型中的Z-number参数进行概率化转换,实现了不同类型不确定性变量的统一。将转化后的负荷响应量视作新的随机变量引入IEGES概率能流计算模型并应用点估计法实现求解。最后,分别以修改的IEEE-14节点和天然气7节点组成的小规模IEGES以及IEEE-118节点和比利时20节点组成的大规模IEGES为例,验证所提模型和方法的有效性。

With the interconnection between power system and other energy supply systems,the traditional electricitybased demand response will evolve to the paradigm of integrated demand response(IDR).To analyze the implication of IDR in the future multi-energy system,this paper presented a methodological framework for dynamic probabilistic energy flow(DPEF)calculation,while considering the complex uncertainties of IDR.Based on the operational characteristics of different types of loads in regional interconnected electricity-gas energy system(IEGES),a formulation of IDR uncertainty model using Z-number technique was first proposed.The proposed model not only accounts for the randomness arising from demand-side behaviors,but also the potential effect of information credibility.By using transformation techniques,the Z-number-based quantities in the presented IDR model can be transformed into probabilistic forms and regarded as supplementary random variables in the DPEF calculation.The point estimate method was employed to solve the DPEF problem.The proposed framework is illustrated based on two IEGES test cases and the obtained results verify the efficiency of the presented model and approach.