畜牧业产业集聚与门槛效应分析——基于2010—2019年畜牧业产业省级面板

ANALYSIS ON THE AGGLOMERATION AND THRESHOLD EFFECT OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY INDUSTRY——BASED ON THE PROVINCIAL PANEL OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY INDUSTRY FROM 2010 TO 2019

[目的]测算2010—2019年全国畜牧业产业集聚度并研究其对区域经济增长的影响作用及渠道路径。[方法]文章利用区位熵指数测算畜牧业产业集聚水平,构建畜牧业产业集聚与经济增长模型,结合调节模型、中介模型来检验畜牧业产业集聚度对经济增长的影响及机制,并使用工具变量法进行稳健性检验。[结果](1)畜牧业产业集聚具有门槛效应,只有超过门槛值之后,畜牧业产业集聚才能推动经济增长;(2)在畜牧业要素禀赋多的地区的畜牧业产业集聚对经济增长的影响更大,要素禀赋具有调节作用,畜牧业子产业具有中介效应。(3)内蒙古、吉林、湖北与新疆4省区位于产业集聚U型曲线右侧,畜牧业产业对经济增长的带动作用明显;(4)辽宁、湖南、海南、西藏、云南、贵州6省区刚过畜牧业产业门槛,畜牧业产业集聚对经济增长的带动作用初步呈现;(5)广西、四川、河南和安徽4省区处于U型曲线左侧,需调整或改变他们的产业结构;(6)江西、河北、青海、黑龙江的畜牧业产业集聚对经济增长有倒U型作用,且这4个省畜牧业产业集聚度已超过最优点,需注意规模不经济问题。[结论]各地应根据本地畜牧业要素禀赋与产业集聚情况,采用对应的产业政策,推动畜牧业产业发展。

The purpose of this study is to measure the animal husbandry industry agglomeration(AHIA) from 2010to 2019 in China and explore its impact on regional economic growth and its impact pathway. This paper empirically analyzed and compared the effects of AHIA on economic growth. Firstly, the location entropy was used to measure the AHIA. Secondly, an econometric model was built and interaction and the mediating effect models were used to empirically verify the impact path and mechanism of AHIA on economic growth, and the instrumental variable method was used to demonstrate robustness. The results were showed as follows.(1) There was a threshold effect for AHIA, economic growth occurred only when an increase in AHIA exceeded this threshold.(2)A province with a higher factor endowment in animal husbandry, AHIA would have a greater impact on economic growth. The afore mentioned factor endowment played a regulatory role, and there was an intermediary effect for animal husbandry subdivided industries.(3) Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Hubei and Xinjiang were located on the right side of the U-shaped curve of AHIA, for them AHIA promoted their economic growth.(4) Liaoning, Hunan, Hainan, Tibet, Yunnan and Guizhou just passed the threshold of animal husbandry industry, for them the driving effect of AHIA on economic growth was only emerging.(5) Guangxi, Sichuan, Henan and Anhui provinces were on the left side of the U-shaped curve, where the AHIA impeded their economies. It would be better for them to adjust their structures or change direction.(6) Jiangxi, Hebei, Qinghai and Heilongjiang lied on the right of an inverted U-shaped effect of AHIA on economic growth which meant that the scale and structure of animal husbandry for them needed reducing to avoid a diseconomy of scale. Therefore, all regions should formulate corresponding policies to promote the development of animal husbandry industry according to the local animal husbandry factor endowment and industry agglomeration.