南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展综合评价及实证分析

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN HILLY AND MOUNTAINOUS AREA

[目的]基于农业可持续发展的内涵(农业经济、资源环境、文化科技和农村社会等四个方面),结合南方丘陵山区山多、森林覆盖率高的特点,通过实地调研并咨询农业相关方面的专家,构建了南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展评价指标体系;全面诊断南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展状况和存在的问题。[方法]文章以江西省莲花县为实证,运用加权综合评价模型、协调度模型和发展障碍度模型对研究区农业可持续发展现状、可持续发展潜能和障碍因素进行分析研究。[结果]研究区农业可持续发展综合能力处于良性增长的态势,2000—2016年农业可持续发展综合评价指数年均增长10.25%;可持续发展协调度综合指数0.78。[结论]研究区农业可持续发展具有较好的前景;影响研究区农业可持续发展的主要障碍因素为农村社会,它对总体目标贡献了66.48%的障碍度。加快农村城镇化进程,减少农村贫困率有助于促进农村社会的和谐发展。

Based on connotations of agricultural sustainable development including agricultural economy,resources and environment,agricultural science and technology and rural society,and combined with the characteristics of high coverage of forests and hills,this paper constructed the agricultural sustainable development evaluation index system of Lianhua county with reference to relevant research results and the opinions of local agricultural experts.Then,comprehensive weighted evaluation model,coordination degree model and development obstacle degree model were used to analyze the agricultural sustainable development standard in the county.The results showed that,firstly,sustainable development of agricultural production,agricultural economy and agricultural science and technology ability in Lianhua county were strong while comprehensive ability to develop sustainable agriculture was in a benign growth trend.From 2000 to 2016,the comprehensive evaluation index of agricultural sustainable development increased by 10.25%annually,and the comprehensive index of sustainable development coordination degree was 0.78.Secondly,agricultural resources and environment development was unsustainable,mostly as a result of poor sustainability in agricultural intensification,agricultural resources carrying capacity and ecological environment quality.In addition,social sustainable development ability is weak in the rural area,which may be accounted for 66.48%by obstacle factors such as poverty population and per capita rural labor burden.Therefore,it is vital to accelerate rural urbanization and reduce rural poverty rate in order to promote the harmonious development of the rural society.