甘肃省农业环境效率及碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率测算研究

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL ENVIRONMENT EFFICIENCY AND AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN GANSU PROVINCE UNDER CARBON EMISSIONS CONSTRAINT

[目的]考虑碳排放约束,分析甘肃省农业全要素生产率整体特征和区域特征,以期为提升甘肃省农业可持续发展能力提供参考。[方法]文章基于2005—2016年甘肃省14市州面板数据,以农业碳排放作为非期望产出指标,运用非径向、非角度的SBM模型和Malmquist—Luenberger生产率指数法,对甘肃省农业环境效率和碳排放约束下农业全要素生产率指数进行测算。[结果](1)2005—2016年甘肃省农业环境效率值总体呈现下降—上升—趋于平缓的变化趋势,且均小于1;(2)碳排放约束下甘肃省农业全要素生产率总体呈现波动增长的趋势,年均值为1.010,年均增长率为1%,且主要来源于技术进步;(3)甘肃省农业全要素生产率增长存在显著区域差异,其中中部地区增长最快,陇东南地区次之,河西地区增长最慢。[结论]忽视碳排放将不利于农业可持续发展,建议各区域依据自身资源禀赋,采取差异化的发展思路,提高农业技术成果转化率是提升甘肃省农业全要素生产率的关键。

Considering the constraint of carbon emission,this paper analyzes the overall characteristics and regional characteristics of agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu province in order to provide reference to improve the agricultural sustainable development ability of in Gansu province.Based on the panel data of 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu province from 2005 to 2016,this paper took agricultural carbon emissions as an indicator of undesired output,and used the non-radial and non-angle SBM model and Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index method to calculate the agricultural environmental efficiency and agricultural total factor productivity index of Gansu province under the constraint of carbon emission.The research results showed that:(1)The agricultural environmental efficiency of Gansu province showed a trend of decreasing,rising and flattening on the whole,all of which were less than 1 from 2005 to 2016;(2)Under the constraint of carbon emission,the agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu province showed a trend of fluctuating growth,with an annual average of 1.010 and an average annual growth rate of 1%,which was mainly derived from the advancement of technology;(3)There were prominent regional differences in the growth of agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu province,among which the growth was the fastest in the Central region,followed by the Southeast region,and the slowest in Hexi region.It is the key to improve the agricultural total factor productivity in Gansu province to take a differentiated development train of thought and improve the conversion rate of agricultural technical achievements according to their own resource endowment.