中国畜牧业产业结构和竞争力的区域分析——基于偏离—份额分析空间模型

REGIONAL ANALYSIS ON STRUCTURE AND COMPETITIVENESS OF CHINA′S ANIMAL HUSBANDRY——BASED ON SHIFT-SHARE ANALYSIS SPACE MODEL

[目的]畜牧业现代化转型是未来发展方向,识别我国畜牧业及其各部门发展的优势区,对各地推进畜牧业现代化具有重要意义。[方法]文章采用偏离—份额分析空间模型对2003—2017年我国畜牧业及其部门产业结构和竞争力进行分析,并总结畜牧业发展优势区域。[结果]31个省(市、区)畜牧业增长主要依赖于全国畜牧业的发展,并且畜牧业发展兼具空间结构优势和空间竞争优势的综合优势区仅包含吉林、黑龙江、陕西、山西、内蒙古、贵州、宁夏、西藏和新疆,分布在东北区、黄河中游区、大西南区和大西北区。对不同畜牧业部门,因自然、资源、技术、经济等条件不同,各地生猪饲养、草食畜饲养和家禽饲养部门的产业结构和竞争力表现存在差异。其中,生猪饲养没有综合优势区;草食畜饲养综合优势区省市较多,包括吉林、陕西等9个省市;家禽饲养综合优势区仅有陕西、云南等6省市。[结论]该研究认为各地应规划确定主导畜牧业发展部门,借鉴邻近地区畜牧业发展成功经验,发挥对邻近省市辐射带动作用,推进区域性现代畜牧业发展。

Modernization is the future direction of China′s animal husbandry.It is of great significance for each province to identify the priority regions of animal husbandry and its sub-sectors,so as to promote the modernization.By applying the shift-share analysis space model,this paper analyzed on the industrial structure and competitiveness of animal husbandry and its sub-sectors from 2003 to 2017,and then summarized the priority regions for developing animal husbandry.The results showed that the growth of animal husbandry of provincial level mainly relied on the development of national level,and only the development of animal husbandry in Jilin,Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Guizhou,Ningxia,Tibet and Xinjiang located in the Northeast area,middle reaches of the Yellow River,Southwest area and Northwest area,had both structural advantage and competitive advantage.As for different sub-sectors of animal husbandry,due to various natural,resources,technology and economic conditions,there were different performances of industrial structure and competitiveness among 31 provinces′hog sector,livestock sector and poultry sector.Further,there were no comprehensive priority regions of hog sector which had both structural advantage and competitive advantage;nine provinces had comprehensive priority of livestock sector,such as Jilin and Shaanxi;six provinces had the comprehensive priority of poultry sector,such as Shaanxi and Yunnan.So,in the future,each province should plan and develop a leading sub-sector of animal husbandry according to advantage,draw on the successful experience of neighbouring provinces,play the radiate-driven role in neighbouring provinces,and promote the development of regional modern animal husbandry.