科研产出是否受到公众关注度的影响?——“中美贸易摩擦”的大数据实证

Is the Output of Scientific Research Influenced by Public Attention?——Big Data Empirical Analysis of“Sino US Trade Friction”

本文研究了在一个社会热点事件发生后,其公众关注度是否影响到有关该事件的科学研究,以“中美贸易摩擦”事件作为案例,使用中国知网发文测量科研产出,将公众关注度设计为公众搜索行为、公众发帖行为两个指标,使用百度搜索指数和新浪微博的大数据抓取进行测量,采用Granger因果关系检验两者关系。研究结果显示:热点议题的科研产出具有滞后性,但是滞后期短于发表周期;热点议题的公众关注具有及时性;冲突期公众使用发帖多,而平缓期公众使用搜索较多;发帖行为比搜索行为对科研产出的预测效果好;公众关注对同领域的科研产出预测更好;会议类科研产出受公众关注的影响更早,而学位论文受到的影响更晚。本文为相关部门进行舆情管理和科研管理提供了意见和建议。

This paper studies whether the publie attention of a hot social event affects the scientific research on the event.This paper takes“Sino-US trade friction”as an example,uses CNKI to measure scientific research output,designs public attention as two indicators of public search behayior and public post behavior,and uses Baidu search index and Sina microblog data to measure.Granger causality is used to test the relationship.The results show that the scientific research output of hot topics lags behind,but the lag period is shorter than the publishing cycle;the public attention of hot topics is timely;in the conflict period,the public use more posts behaviors,while in the flat delay period,the public use more search behaviors;the post behavior has more influence on the research behavior than the search behavior.The prediction of scientific research output in the same field is better;the impact of conference scn ientific research output is earlier and the impact of dissertation is later.This paper provides suggestions for the prediction and management of scientific research output.