住房价格预期影响居民储蓄的理论机制与实证分析

Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Housing Price Expectations on Residents'Savings

本文构建了一个包含预期住房价格的两期模型,利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和中国宏观经济数据,考察不同类型家庭住房价格预期和储蓄的关系,发现异质性家庭储蓄与住房价格预期之间的影响因素并不相同。模型分析表明,住房价格和储蓄增长正负关系发生转变的关键是住房价格预期增长率的大小,与现有文献关于住房价格变化与储蓄关系的研究没有一致结论相符。在模型分析的基础上,通过数值模拟家庭消费决策,使储蓄率符合1990~2019年中国居民实际储蓄率,研究住房价格预期上升和下降情况下,不同类型住房价格预期家庭储蓄行为的变化。

This study constructs a two-period model incorporating expected housing prices and examines the relationship between housing price expectations and savings across different household types utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and China's macroeconomic indicators.It finds that the factors influencing the relationship between heterogeneous household savings and housing price expectations vary.Model analysis reveals that the pivotal factor for the shift between positive and negative correlations in housing price and savings growth is the magnitude of the expected housing price growth rate.This finding aligns with the inconsistency noted in the current literature regarding the relationship between housing price fluctuations and savings.Building on the model analysis,we simulate house-hold consumption decisions numerically to align with the actual savings rates of Chinese residents between 1990 and 2019.Furthermore,we investigate how the savings behavior of households with varying housing price expectations changes in response to anticipated rises and falls in housing prices.