家庭杠杆率影响居民收入的机制和“倒U型”变化轨迹

Mechanism Analysis of Household Leverage Ratio Affecting Residents'Income and“Inverted U-Shaped”Change Trajectory

面对近年来中国家庭杠杆率的不断攀升现象,本文关注和研究居民家庭杠杆率与家庭收入之间的关系。基于2014年、2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies,CFPS)数据,本文发现杠杆率与家庭收入之间存在显著的“倒U型”关系。居民杠杆率通过经营规划和金融投入两个途径影响家庭收入:一方面居民杠杆率通过提高家庭的经营规划进而促进家庭收入的提升;另一方面居民杠杆率的提高会增加家庭的金融投入,但是金融投入的增加会造成家庭收入的脆弱性与不确定性提高,进而导致家庭收入降低。异质性分析表明,高教育程度群体、东部地区及中高收入的家庭有更显著的“倒U型”关系。对居民杠杆率与收入风险之间关系的讨论发现,随着杠杆率的增加,家庭收入风险显著增加。本文的研究结论对居民合理控制杠杆率、提升财富水平提供了参考价值。

In the face of the rising household leverage ratio in China in recent years,this paper focuses on the relationship between household leverage ratio and household income.Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2014,2016 and 2018,this paper found a significant“inverted U-shaped”relationship between leverage and household income.Household leverage ratio affects household income through business planning and financial input:On the one hand,household leverage ratio promotes the improvement of household income by improving household business planning;on the other hand,the increase of household leverage ratio will increase the financial input of households,but the increase of financial input will increase the vulnerability and uncertainty of household income,and then lead to the decrease of household income.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the higher education group,the eastern region and the middle and high income families have a more signifcant“inverted U-shaped”relationship.A discussion of the relationship between leverage ratio and income risk shows that household income risk increases significantly with the increase of leverage ratio.The research conclusion of this paper provides reference value for residents to control leverage ratio reasonably and improve wealth level.