养老保险制度、居民储蓄行为与家庭养老——基于子代质量偏好的视角

The Pension System,Household Savings and Family Security——From the Perspective of Quality-preference on Offspring

本文通过构建子代质量偏好视角下双向利他动机的三期代际交叠模型(OLG),运用“中国家庭金融调查”项目(CHFS)2013~2019年四次调查所形成的面板数据,研究在三种不同养老保险制度背景下单位缴费比例变动对居民储蓄行为与家庭养老的影响,进行了相关的平衡增长均衡分析和实证检验,得出基本结论如下:(1)在部分积累制和现收现付制养老保险制度下,单位缴费比例与家庭储蓄率呈正相关关系,与代际净转移率呈负相关关系,但两种制度背景下的作用效果存在差异;(2)在基金制养老保险制度下,单位缴费比例与家庭储蓄率呈负相关关系,与代际净转移率呈正相关关系。基于此,本文在政策建议方面进行了探讨,我国在实行统账结合的部分积累制养老保险制度的背景下,可以通过进一步降低单位缴费比例,降低居民储蓄,缓解家庭养老压力,释放消费需求,刺激经济发展。

This paper constructs a three-period overlapping generations model with two-sided altruistic motivation from the perspective of quality-preference on offspring,and uses the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)data from 2013 to 2019 to examine how the changes in the contribution rate of the social pooling account affects household savings and intergenerational transfer of the three different pension system.We study this phenomenon by equilibrium analysis of theoretical modals in a balanced growth path and empirical tests.The basic conclusions are as follows:(1)The contribution rate of the social pooling account is positively correlated with the household savings rate,and negatively correlated with the net intergenerational transfer rate both on partially funded and pay-as-you-go pension system.However,there are some differences in the effectiveness of the two systems.(2)On full-funded pension system,the contribution rate of the social pooling account is negatively correlated with the household savings rate,and positively correlated with the net intergenerational transfer rate.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions;Under the partially funded pension system with SP&IRA,the government should reduce the contribution rate of the social pooling account to lower household savings rate,alleviate the family pressures of intergenerational transfer,activate the consumption demands and promote economic development.