有为政府、财政分权与央地财政支出效果分析——基于新结构经济学的视角

Promising Government,Fiscal Decentralization and the Effectiveness of Central and Local Fiscal Expenditures:The Perspective of New Structural Economics

新冠疫情期间各级政府的财政调控是有为政府的典型实践。本文构建包含“疫情冲击”“财政分权”“异质性地区”的多部门动态随机一般均衡(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium,DSGE)模型,研究特殊时期央地两级政府和不同地区地方政府财政支出政策的“稳增长”和“稳就业”效果。研究发现:第一,新冠疫情冲击下发达地区GDP增长率和居民消费水平的下降幅度明显大于欠发达地区,欠发达地区劳动力就业受到的影响更明显;第二,央地财政支出均带动了经济复苏,地方政府财政支出对当地经济增长和就业的促进作用更明显;第三,中央和欠发达地区政府的投资性支出对私人消费和私人投资产生了“挤出效应”,发达地区投资性支出发挥了一定的引致效用;第四,地方政府的投资性支出带动了本地区和其他地区的就业,发达地区投资性支出对就业的促进作用更明显。未来需基于央地财政实力和各地经济现实,兼顾财政政策的短期和中长期效应,优化财政支出结构,强化地方政府职能,实现有效市场与有为政府的高效结合。

The fiscal regulations of governments at all levels during the COVID-19 epidemic are typical practices of promising governments.This paper constructs a multi-sectoral dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSCE)model that includes“epidemic impact”“fiscal decentralization”and“heterogeneous regions”,and studies the effectiveness of fiscal expenditure of central and local governments.The study found that:first,under the impact of the epidemic,the decline in CDP growth and resident consumption in developed regions was greater than that in underdeveloped regions,and labor employment in underdeveloped regions was more significantly affected;second,central and local fiscal expenditures drove economic recovery;the promotion effect of local government fiscal expenditure is more obvious than central government fiscal expenditure;third,the investment expenditure of the central goverment and the government of less developed regions has a“Crowding out effect”,investment expenditure in developed regions has played a certain positive role;fourth,investment expenditure of local governments has driven employment in different regions,and investment expenditure in developed regions is more effective.In the future,it is necessary to take into account the short-term,medium-and long-term efects of fiscal control policies,optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures,strengthen the functions of local governments,and achieve an efficient combination of effective markets and promising govemments.