土地流转、非农就业与农户收入增长:理论分析与实证检验——基于全国农村固定观察点数据

Land Transfer,Non-agricultural Employment and Household Income Growth:Empirical Analysis and Policy Response——Based on Data from Fixed Observation Points in Rural Areas

本文利用两元泰勒公式构建了农地承包经营权流转与农户收入关系的数理模型,证明了参与土地流转的家庭通过对土地和劳动力资源的重新配置,提高了家庭收入水平。进一步,本文借助2004年和2016年农村固定观察点数据,采用ATE方法和ATT方法实证分析了土地流转对家庭收入水平的影响;采用中介效应模型证实了土地流转通过非农就业对家庭收入的中介效应;采用两期四组二重差分(DID)和PSM-DID方法实证分析了土地流转对家庭非农就业的影响。研究发现:(1)土地流转能显著提高家庭总收入水平并且土地流转类型不同,家庭收入增长的路径不同。土地转入能显著提高家庭农业收入,土地转出能显著提高家庭工资性收入。(2)土地流转通过非农就业对家庭总收入、农业收入和工资性收入产生“部分”中介效应,且中介效应解释率分别为9.88%、6.80%和10.94%。(3)土地流转对家庭非农就业具有显著影响,土地转入对家庭非农就业具有显著负效应,土地转出对家庭非农就业具有显著正效应。参与土地转入使得家庭非农就业降低6.2%左右,参与土地转出使得家庭非农就业提高6.5%左右。

This paper uses the two-element Taylor formula to construct a mathematical model of the relationship between the transfer of farmland contractual management rights and farmers’income,and proves that households participating in the transfer of land contractual management rights have improved the level of household income through the reallocation of land and labor resources.Further,this paper uses the fixed observation point data of rural areas in 2004 and 2016,using the ATE and ATT method to empirically analyze the impact of land transfer on household income levels;using two periods of four Group double difference(DID)and PSM-DID methods empirically analyze the impact of land transfer on household non-agricultural employment.The study found that:(1)Land transfer can significantly increase the level of household income.Different types of land transfer have different paths for household income growth.Land transfer can significantly increase family agricultural income,and land transfer can significantly increase family wage income.(2)Land transfer has a"partial"intermediary effect on household total income,agricultural income,and wage income through non-agricultural employment.The effect explanation rates are 9.88%,6.80%and 10.94%respectively.(3)Land transfer has a significant impact on the family’s non-agricultural employment,land transfer has a significant negative effect on the family’s non-agricultural employment,and land transfer has a significant impact on the family’s non-agricultural employment.Participating in land transfer reduces the family’s non-agricultural employment by about 6.2%,and participating in land transfer increases the family’s non-agricultural employment by about 6.5%.