弓满则断:地方经济增长目标与企业杠杆率——基于地方政府行为视角下的中国经验证据

Local Economic Growth Target,Government Behavior and Corporate Leverage

地方经济增长目标作为中国政府经济治理工具篮子中的重要手段,会显著影响微观结构主体的投融资行为。本文将中国上市企业数据与宏观数据相结合(2008~2018年),研究地方经济增长目标对企业杠杆率水平的影响。研究发现,地方经济增长目标设定越高,会显著驱动企业加杠杆,上述结论在多重稳健性检验后保持不变。从影响机制来看,地方经济增长目标设定越高,在宏观上会加强基础设施建设强度,并导致地方的财政失衡状况加剧;在微观上会强化企业的短视偏好并折损创新能力,引发脱实向虚并降低了内部金融资源的充裕程度,这些都导致企业杠杆率水平的提升。进一步研究发现,地方政府激励结构显著地影响了地方经济增长目标作用于企业杠杆率的效果:在"为增长而竞争"和"财政激励"的导向下,地方经济增长目标驱动企业加杠杆的特征会得以强化。特别是在"层层加码"的偏向下,这种加杠杆特征更为明显。但随着新时代经济条件下经济管理导向的变化,这种不利影响出现了一定的转变端倪。本文可以为理解中国政府经济管理行为提供重要线索,并为政府制度优化和经济增长提供相关启示。

As an important means of the Chinese government’s economic governance tool basket,local economic growth targets will significantly affect the investment and financing behavior of microstructure subjects.This article combines the data of Chinese listed companies with macro data(2008-2018)to study the impact of local economic growth goals on the level of corporate leverage.The study found that the higher the local economic growth target is set,it will significantly drive enterprises to increase leverage,and the above conclusion remains unchanged after multiple robustness tests.From the perspective of the impact mechanism,the higher the local economic growth target is set,the more intensive the infrastructure construction will be,and the local fiscal imbalance will be intensified.At the micro level,it will strengthen the short-sighted preferences of enterprises and reduce the ability to innovate,which will lead to demobilization.The reality is false and reduces the adequacy of internal financial resources,which has led to an increase in corporate leverage.Further research found that the incentive structure of local governments significantly affected the effect of local economic growth targets on corporate leverage:under the guidance of"competition for growth and financial incentives",the characteristics of local economic growth targets driving corporate leverage will be strengthened.Especially in the downward direction of"layer-by-layer overweight",this kind of leverage feature is more obvious.However,with the change of economic management orientation in the new era of economic conditions,this kind of adverse influence has shown some changes.This article can provide important clues for understanding the Chinese government’s economic management behavior,and provide relevant inspiration for government system optimization and economic growth.