金融开放的风险效应测度与中国经验特征——基于85个国家和地区的面板门限模型检验

Measurement of the Risk Effect of Financial Openness and the Characteristics of China’s Experience——Based on the Test of Panel Threshold Model of 85 Countries and Regions

事实证明,多数发展中国家很少在金融开放过程中获益,反而频发金融危机。我国是世界上最大的发展中国家,近年来正不断扩大金融开放,探究金融开放风险效应有一定现实意义。利用85个国家和地区20052017年的数据,以初始经济发展水平、金融发展水平、制度质量、监管水平为门限变量,构建面板门限回归模型,发现发展中国家金融开放风险效应显著为正,且模型中存在显著的门限效应;利用2009年之后的数据发现该结论是稳健的;根据模型估计结果,采用信号分析法,结合我国样本期内各门限变量数值,综合分析我国金融开放风险效应,研究发现:样本期内、样本期平均值与期末值,三者综合评分均未达到良好,现阶段我国金融开放显示出强风险效应。本文研究结论可以为我国金融开放进程中提升风险警惕、不断完善监管体系提供理论依据与政策支持。

It has been proved that most developing countries seldom benefit from the process of financial openness,but incur financial crises frequently.As the largest developing country of the world,China has been expanding its financial openness in recent years.Therefore,it is of certain practical significance to explore the risk effect of financial openness.Using the data of 85 countries and regions from2005 to 2017 and taking the initial level of economic development,the level of financial development,the quality of institution and the level of regulatory as threshold variables,this study constructed a panel threshold regression model,showing that the risk effect of financial openness in developing countries was significantly positive and there was significant threshold effect in the model.By using data from2009 onwards,the results were still robust.According to the result of the model,the signal analysis method was adopted to comprehensively analyze the risk effect of China’s financial openness.The study found that the comprehensive scores of the sample period,the average value of the sample period and the end value of the period indicated a strong risk effect in China’s financial openness at this stage.The conclusion of this paper can provide theoretical basis and policy support for improving risk vigilance and continuously improving regulatory system in the process of financial openness of China.