经济政策不确定性与企业短贷长投——基于中国上市公司的经验证据

Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Enterprises “Maturity Mismatch”?——Evidence from A-share Listed Companies

本文以2003~2016年我国沪深A股非金融类上市公司作为研究样本,实证检验经济政策不确定性对企业短贷长投的影响。实证结果表明:经济政策不确定性上升会抑制企业短贷长投。使用替代变量进行稳健性检验以及使用工具变量处理可能存在的内生性问题后,结论依然成立。进一步研究表明,经济政策不确定性对非国有性质企业短贷长投的抑制作用更加显著;而对处于市场化程度较高地区企业短贷长投的抑制作用会被削弱。本文从短贷长投视角探讨经济政策不确定性对企业治理水平的影响,强化了经济政策不确定性对企业治理的经验证据。

This paper looks at the non-financial listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2003 to 2016 as a research sample,and empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on short-term loan long-term investment of enterprises.Empirical results show that rising economic policy uncertainty will inhibit shortterm investment by enterprises.After using alternative variables for robustness testing and tool variables to deal with possible endo-existing problems,the conclusion is still valid.Further research shows that economic policy uncertainty has a more significant inhibitory effect on short-term loan long-term investment of non-state-owned enterprises,while the inhibition effect on short-term loan long-term investment of enterprises in areas with higher degree of marketization will be weakened.This paper discusses the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the level of corporate governance from the perspective of short-term loan long-term investment,and strengthens the experience evidence of economic policy uncertainty on corporate governance.