农村家庭结构对商品房购买选择影响的实证检验

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Family Structure on the Investment of Commercial Housing

本文使用中国家庭金融微观调查数据,将家庭结构划分为家庭人口结构和婚姻关系两个维度,并从微观层面探讨家庭结构对农户家庭商品房选择的影响。Probit和Tobit模型的实证分析结果显示,一方面,老年抚养比与农户家庭商品房参与概率显著负相关,但是少儿抚养比、家庭规模、家庭代际数均与商品房参与概率显著正相关,家庭规模、家庭代际数与家庭持有商品房比重显著正相关:另一方面,农户家庭的婚姻状态对于农户家庭商品房参与概率和持有比重的影响十分有限。总的来说,这些结果表明家庭结构是影响农户家庭商品房选择的重要因素,且不同因素的影响效果存在一定的差异。本研究从家庭结构角度出发,对深刻理解当下商品房市场供需政策的调整提供了一个新的研究视角,具有一定的政策参考价值。

This paper utilized the data of CHFS 2013 to study the impact of family structure on the rural households investment of commercial housing in terni of demographic structure and marital relationship.The empirical results of Probit and Tobit models showed that:on the one hand,the old-age dependency ratio was significantly negatively correlated with the participation probability of the rural household,but the child dependency ratio,family size,and family intergenerational numbers were significandy positively correlated with the participation probability;on the other hand,the marital status had a limited impact on the participation probability and proportion of household housing as well.In sum,these results indicated that the family structure played an important role in affecting the choice of commercial housing for rural household,and the effects of different factors were varied.Based on this empirical study,it provided a new research perspective for the deep understanding of the current policy on the adjustment of commercial housing market.