英国南海政策的演变、原因与潜在影响

The Evolution,Drivers and Implications of UK’s Policy on South China Sea

从2016年开始,英国放弃了在南海问题上不持立场的政策,公开对中国施压且派遣军舰巡航亚太地区,以"航行自由"为由侵犯中国西沙领海。英国南海政策的转变受到"南海仲裁案"和"脱欧"的深刻影响。"南海仲裁案"促使英国转变立场,"脱欧"带来的多重压力则推动英国升级了介入南海的行动。英国军舰在南海海域和亚太地区的常态化活动不仅可能对澳大利亚和日本以及与中国在南海存在争端的东南亚国家产生鼓励和示范效应,还可能推动法国和印度等域外势力介入南海争端,增大发生意外的风险。英国军舰在亚太地区的常态化活动可能持续下去,但由于本土安全形势、主力水面战舰数量有限、防务预算压力以及维系对华友好关系的限制,类似行动难以扩大规模。

UK abandoned its neutral position on South China Sea(SCS)since 2016.UK’s leaders urged China to abide by the SCS Arbitration publicly and sent warships to navigate Asia-Pacific waters.H MS Albion challenged Paracel Islands’territorial waters by its Freedom of Navigation Operation on A ugust 31 st2018.The transformation of UK’s SCS position is deeply influenced by the Arbitration and Brexit.The Arbitration made UK abandon its neutral position and the multi-pressure brought by the Brexit pushed UK to upgrade its operations.UK warships’regular navigation and operations in Asia-Pacific and SCS will encourage and set an example to Australia,Japan and those Southeast Asian countries which dispute with China on SCS.France and India may also be encouraged to get more involved in SCS and the risk of accidents will be enlarged.However,restricted by European waters’security pressure brought by Russia,limited major surface combatants and defence budget,and the need to sustain a good relationship with China,UK warships’regular navigation may last for some time but can hardly be expanded.