基于GIS和地统计的章贡区松褐天牛的监测预警研究

Monitoring and early warning of Monochamus alternatus in Zhanggong district based on GIS and geostatistics

松褐天牛是松材线虫的传播媒介,加强对松褐天牛的有效监测预警,是防治松材线虫病的重要措施。笔者通过在江西省赣州市章贡区松树林设置多个诱捕器进行连续监测,划分松褐天牛的成虫活动时段,并分析各个时段的空间自相关性,并通过引入关键影响因子优化空间插值方法,从而对该地区松褐天牛空间分布进行预测和可视化表达。研究结果表明:①松褐天牛在章贡区的活动时间可划分为羽化期、高峰期、次高峰期和盛末期;②全监测期平均值、羽化期与高峰期诱捕的松褐天牛空间相关性较高,存在空间自相关,而次高峰期和盛末期不存在空间相关性;③影响松褐天牛发生的主要因素是海拔和坡向,在使用协同克里金法时应选择相应相关性较高的因子进行插值分析预测;④引入海拔和坡向两个因子可提高各个时期的空间插值精度,表明引入因子分析的协同克里金法插值精度优于存在考虑单一的传统方法;⑤根据全监测期、羽化期与高峰期的空间插值,表明西南角和东北部地区松褐天牛分布较多。通过GIS和地统计的预测分析,能够具体反映到空间分布。笔者研究结果旨在为松材线虫病的监测防治提供参考依据。

Monochamus alterna tus is the vector of pine wood nematodes.Effective monitoring and early warning of M.alternatus is important to pine wood nematode control.In this study,multiple traps were set up in the pine forest of Zhanggong District for continuous monitoring,the activity period of M.alternatus adults was divided,and the spatial autocorrelation of each period was analyzed.The spatial distribution of M.alternatus was predicted and visualized after optimization of spatial interpolation method by introducing key impact factors.The results show that:(1)The activity time of M.alternatus in Zhanggong District can be divided into emergence period,peak period,sub-peak period and end peak stage.(2)The spatial correlation of the average value in the whole monitoring period,the emergence period,and the peak period among different observation sites was high,and there was spatial autocorrelation.But there was no spatial correla-tion in the sub-peak and end peak period.(3)The main factors affecting the occurrence of M.alternatus were altitude and slope aspect,which should be selected for interpolation analysis and prediction when using the CoKriging method.(4)The introduction of altitude and aspect into CoKriging method can improve the spatial interpolation accuracy of each period,compared with traditional method of single parameter.(5)According to the spatial interpolation of the whole monitoring period,the emergence period,and the peak period,it showed that the population abundance of M.alternatus in the southwest corner and the northeast region was more than that in other areas.GIS and geostatistical prediction analysis can specifically reflect the spatial distribution of M.alternatus,providing a reference for the monitoring and control of pine wood nematode disease.