铁路事故灰色关联分析

Grey correlation analysis of railway accidents

为解决铁路事故与责任部门的灰色关联问题,根据2014—2018中国铁道年鉴中的统计数据,分析安全事故发生的直接原因;根据事故所涉及的主要责任部门,将事故分为车务事故、电务事故、工务事故、机务事故及路外事故5类;采用灰色关联分析方法,并借助SPSS软件,分析事故主要责任部门职责,找出关键致因。研究结果表明:人员横越线路、翻越防护设施等因素为铁路路外相撞事故的主要诱因,加强沿线居民的安全守法意识最为重要;铁路事故影响因素灰色关联分析结果显示,路外发生的事故关联度最高,然后依次为车务事故、机务事故、工务事故和电务事故。

This study aimed to make clear grey correlations between railway accidents and responsible departments.The direct causes of safety accidents were analyzed with statistical data in China railway yearbooks from 2014 to 2018.According to the main responsible departments involved,accidents were divided into five categories:vehicle accident,electrical accident,engineering accident,maintenance accident and off-road accident.Their key causes were found by investigating the duties of main responsible departments through grey correlation analysis with SPSS.The results show that crossing lines and protective facilities by people is the main inducement of off-road collision accidents.Thus,it takes priority to strengthen the safety and law-abiding awareness of residents along lines.The grey correlation analysis results of factors influencing railway accidents indicate that off-road accidents have the highest correlation degree,followed by vehicle accidents,maintenance accidents,engineering accidents and electrical accidents.