区域铁路运输安全态势表征与评估方法

Characterization and assessment of safety situation for regional railway transportation

为保障区域铁路运输安全、提升综合管理水平,首先,以事故多属性分析为切入点,表征区域铁路运输安全态势,建立态势评估的表征指标体系,并给出相应的量化方法;从相对距离和相对趋向2个层面,构建基于组合权重的改进理想点法(TOPSIS)-余弦相似度评估模型,初步估计涉及事故等级与性质的相关参数;实证分析2016—2018年国内某区域铁路运输安全事故统计数据,并通过2组对比试验验证该方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法能合理表征区域铁路运输的安全态势,并从相对距离和相对趋向2个层面评估其优劣与波动程度,从而为区域铁路运输的安全管理决策提供依据。

In order to ensure safety of regional railway transportation and improve its comprehensive management level,safety situation of regional railway transportation was characterized through accident multi-attribute analysis,a characterization indicator system of situation assessment was established and corresponding quantitative methods were presented.Then,an improved TOPSIS-Cosine Similarity assessment model based on combined weights was constructed from levels of relative distance and relative trend,and parameters concerning accident grade and nature were preliminarily estimated.Finally,a reallife case study was carried out according to statistical accident data in a certain region of China from 2016 to 2018,and effectiveness of the model was verified by two sets of comparative tests.The results show that the proposed method can reasonably characterize safety situation of regional railway transportation,and evaluate its pros and cons as well as its fluctuation degree from relative distance and relative trend,thus providing a basis for its safety management decision-making.