基于SEM的铁路客运安全影响因素分析

Influence factor analysis of railway passenger transportation safety based on SEM

随着我国铁路的飞速发展,选择铁路出行的人越来越多,安全是出行最基本的保障。为了确保铁路客运安全,首先根据铁路客运安全评价体系,从工作人员、旅客、设备、管理、环境5个因素探讨对铁路客运安全的影响;其次建立铁路客运安全结构方程模型(SEM),提出假设关系;以部分铁路为例设计并发放铁路安全调查问卷,利用SPSS25.0分析调查问卷的效度,检测问卷的可靠性;最后运用Amos17.0验证分析模型的假设关系。将产生的拟合系数与标准指标相比较,核对拟合系数是否在标准指标的范围内,并适当地修正模型,直到各项拟合指标都达标后确定影响铁路客运安全的主要因素。研究结果表明:工作人员、设备、管理、环境4个因素对铁路客运安全有正态显著的影响,可以通过改善加强人员管理、提高设备安全、改善车站、列车环境等提高铁路客运安全。

With the rapid development of China’s railway,more and more people choose railway for transportation for which safety is the most basic guarantee.In order to ensure railway passenger safety,impacts of five aspects of staff,passengers,equipment,management and environment were discussed according to its basic theory.Secondly SEM of railway passenger transportation security was constructed,hypothetical relation was put forward,and questionnaire was designed and sent out with some railways as examples.Then SPSS25.0 software was used to analyze validity of the questionnaire and Amos17.0 was utilized to verify the model’s hypothetical relation.Finally,fitting coefficients generated were compared with standard indicators to test whether they are within the range of the latter,and appropriate correction was made until fitting indexes are standard so as to determine major influence factors.The results show that staff,equipment,management and environment are positively related with railway passenger transportation safety which can be improved with better staff management,equipment safety,station and train environment.