基于偏态分布的飞行品质风险度量方法

Risk measurement method of flight operational quality based on skewed distribution

为防控飞行风险,利用安全风险矩阵的构建思想和概率论知识,研究飞行品质风险的量化分析方法。通过对满足偏态性的数据进行正态性转换,由正态分布的概率密度函数得到事件发生的概率和事件严重度;基于"风险为概率与严重度乘积"的思想,提出飞行品质风险度量方法;从轻、中、重、综合等4个不同角度度量飞行品质风险,并运用快速存取记录(QAR)数据对方法进行分析论证。研究表明:该方法可整合事件发生的概率和事件的严重度,能够度量4类飞行品质风险,所得结果可用于指导风险的差异化管理。

In order to prevent and control flight risks,construction of safety risk matrix and probability theory are used to study quantitative analysis method of flight operational quality risks.Firstly,probability and severity of events were obtained based on probability density function of normal distribution after normalizing skewed data.Then,a risk measurement method for flight operational quality was put forward based on the idea that"risk is a product of probability and severity".Finally,flight risks were measured from four different perspectives:light,medium,heavy and comprehensive,and QAR data were used to analyze and verify the method.The research shows that the proposed method can integrate probability and severity of events and measure four types of flight risks.Results obtained from it can be used to guide differential management of risks.