安全事故周期规律及把握策略的探索研究

Exploratory Study on Cycle Patterns and Grasping Strategies of Safety Accidents

当前,我国正处于经济由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展的阶段,面临固有风险和新型风险叠加、各类突发事件多发频发的新形势。本文通过对大量事故数据的研究,提出了安全事故的周期特性概念,并采用随机抽样法量化了建筑业的安全事故周期,同时聚焦城市轨道交通建设行业进行了周期数据的反复验证,得出安全事故在一定条件下呈现周期性规律的结论;为把握安全事故周期规律,研究分析了其内在影响因素和相互关系,提出事故隐患防治用在当下、安全文化建设谋于长远的安全管理策略,以期从根本上提高企业安全生产管理水平,有效遏制安全事故的发生。

At present,China is in the stage of economic transformation from high speed growth to high quality development,facing the new situation of superposition of inherent risks and new types of risks,and the frequent occurrence of various types of emergencies.Through the study of a large amount of accident data,this paper puts forward the concept of the cycle characteristics of safety accidents,quantifies the cycle of safety accidents in the construction industry by random sampling method.Focusing on the urban rail transit construction industry,this paper repeatedly verifies the cycle data and finally concludes that safety accidents show a cyclical pattern under certain conditions.In order to grasp the cyclic pattern of safety accidents,this paper analyzes its internal influencing factors and interrelationships,puts forward the safety management strategy of preventing and controlling hidden accidents in the present,constructing a safety culture for the long term,so as to fundamentally improve the level of safety management and effectively curb the occurrence of safety accidents.