地方政府区域灾情形成的多重因素与减灾策略——基于A区台风灾害治理实践的案例分析

The Multiple Factors in the Formation of Regional Disasters and Mitigation Strategies by Local Governments——A Case Study of Typhoon Disaster Governance Practices in District A

快速城市化和全球气候变化的交织并存下,地方政府面临更为复杂的灾害治理情境,使得实际灾情往往与设定目标之间存在偏差,严重阻碍了应急管理体系与能力现代化。为科学诊断并系统分析灾情形成的多重因素,本文创新性地引入社会生态系统理论,选取S市A区台风灾害治理实践为研究对象,直观呈现灾害事件与应急管理实践之间的互动关系及其影响因素,探讨区域灾情形成的多重原因。研究结果表明,区域灾情不仅受到灾害过程与灾害应对过程的直接影响,还受到城市要素、城市系统、参与主体、制度安排等间接因素的显著影响。因此,以降低灾情为衡量标准,通过强化政府应对复杂灾害的适应性及多层级子系统间的协同性,才能不断提升应急管理体系的整体性能力,从而有效实现减灾目标。

Amid the interplay of rapid urbanization and global climate change,local governments face increasingly complex disaster governance scenarios,often leading to discrepancies between actual disaster outcomes and predetermined goals.This significantly hampers the modernization of emergency management systems and capabilities.To scientifically diagnose and systematically analyze the multiple factors contributing to the formation of disaster outcomes,this paper innovatively introduces the Social-Ecological Systems(SES)theory.Using the typhoon disaster governance practices of District A in S City as a case study,the paper visually presents the interactive relationship between disaster events and emergency management practices,as well as their influencing factors,exploring the multiple causes behind regional disaster outcomes.The findings indicate that regional disaster outcomes are not only directly influenced by the disaster process and response efforts but are also significantly affected by indirect factors such as urban elements,urban systems,actors,and institutional arrangements.Therefore,to achieve disaster reduction goals,it is essential to enhance the adaptability of governments in responding to complex disasters and to strengthen the coordination between multi-level subsystems.This will continually improve the overall capacity of the emergency management system and effectively reduce disaster impacts.