慢性危机:概念界定、特征分析及其治理路径

Creeping Crisis:the Concept,Characteristics and Governance

本文旨在理清“慢性危机”的概念,进而在危机管理和风险治理框架的基础上,构建针对性更强的治理框架。通过分析现有公共危机管理和社会风险治理框架,识别其在应对慢性危机时的不足,结合慢性危机的三大特征——危机演化隐蔽、危机状态持久、危机损失深远,提出新的治理框架。研究发现现有框架主要关注突发事件和隐患排查,未能有效应对时空范围扩大且影响深化的慢性危机。慢性危机的治理需要突破突发事件应对的局限,重点关注其独特的长期性和深远性影响。慢性危机的治理应超越现有框架,搭建一个包括“识别确认、关注追踪、干预应对”的动态精准治理框架,以更好地应对慢性危机的挑战。

This paper aims to clarify the concept of creeping crisis and,based on the frameworks of crisis management and risk governance,construct a more targeted governance framework.By analyzing existing public crisis management and social risk governance frameworks,the study identifies their shortcomings in addressing creeping crises.Drawing upon the three defining characteristics of creeping crises-latent evolution,extended duration,and expansive impacts-this study proposes a novel governance framework.The research reveals that current frameworks primarily focus on sudden incidents and potential hazard detection,failing to effectively address creeping crises that expand across broader spatial and temporal dimensions with deepening impacts.Effectively governing creeping crises necessitates moving beyond traditional approaches to establish a dynamic and precise governance framework.This framework should integrate“identification and confirmation,continuous monitoring,intervention response,”thereby enhancing the ability to address the distinctive challenges presented by such crises.