泡沫演化与系统性金融风险防范——基于国际比较的视角

Evolution of Bubbles and Systemic Financial Risk Prevention——A Perspective Based on International Comparison

泡沫的演化是系统性金融风险的起点。本文通过对各类泡沫相关研究的梳理,厘清资产价格泡沫、经济泡沫与泡沫经济的定义与关系。深入探讨了东南亚金融危机、日本泡沫危机和美国次贷危机三次典型泡沫经济引发系统性金融危机的特征、成因以及形成机制,并通过国际比较分析对泡沫经济的本质特征和形成破灭机制进行了总结。研究发现,虚假的繁荣是危机的源头,信贷的过度扩张是泡沫形成的主要推力,政府的错误干预是刺破泡沫的帮凶。泡沫经济的特征是重要资产的价格严重背离实际价值。尽管风险的传导机制不同,风险敞口在近几次金融危机中均来自房地产和股票市场。

The evolution of bubbles marks the starting point of systemic financial risk.This paper clarifies the definitions and relationships among asset price bubbles,economic bubbles,and bubble economies by reviewing various studies related to bubbles.It delves deeply into the characteristics,causes,and formation mechanisms of three typical bubble economiesthe Southeast Asian financial crisis,the Japanese bubble crisis,and the American subprime mortgage crisis.Additionally,it summarizes the fundamental characteristics and mechanisms of formation and collapse of bubble economies through international comparative analysis.The research finds that false prosperity is the root cause of crises,excessive credit expansion is the primary driver of bubble formation,and government intervention errors are accomplices in bursting bubbles.The characteristic of a bubble economy is the significant deviation of the prices of important assets from their actual values.Despite different transmission mechanisms of risk,risk exposures in recent financial crises have originated mainly from the real estate and stock markets.