重特大地震应急物资需求预测方法研究进展

Research Progress of Emergency Materials Demand Forecasting Method for Major Earthquake

应急物资需求预测是重特大地震灾害发生后挽救人民生命和减少财产损失的重要途径。本文在阐述了国内外政府部门和学术界应急物资分类的基础上,阐释了基于应急物资功能和用途及需求特点分类是预测的前提。国内外应急物资需求预测方法分为案例推理法、时间序列分析法和数学模型方法。其中,时间序列分析法包括BP神经网络法和多元线性回归分析法,数学模型法包括基于模糊理论和灰色系统的预测模型。在论述各类方法应用的优缺点基础上,展望了重特大地震灾害应急物资需求预测方法的研究趋势。

Emergency material demand forecast is an important way to save people’s lives and reduce property losses after the occurrence of major earthquake disasters.Reasonable demand forecast method can avoid the phenomenon of supply and demand imbalance and material distribution delay.In this paper,materials will be classified from the perspective of demand forecasting to explain the relationship between material classification and demand forecasting.Then the development status of material demand forecasting method is summarized.The application of case-based reasoning,time series analysis and mathematical model methods in material demand forecasting is elaborated.The advantages and disadvantages of various methods are summarized.Finally,the problems existing in current research methods are put forward and the future research trend is given through the analysis of the methods.