城市安全发展状态评估:研究现状与未来展望

Research Progress and Outlook on Urban Safety Development Status Assessment

为构建科学的城市安全发展状态评估模型,准确有效地评估城市安全发展状态,分别从脆弱性、能力和综合性三种角度梳理评估体系指标构建的研究现状,分类分析定性、定量、半定量和新型评估方法的特点与适用范围,整理国外城市的评估模型与标准,总结城市安全发展状态评估模型研究现阶段的不足和未来的发展趋势。研究表明:现阶段城市安全发展状态评估模型研究的基础理论研究供给不足、指标体系缺乏前瞻性、部分评估方法存在局限性。未来评估模型应更注重城市安全发展源头问题、构建指标体系时应交叉融合不同学科和角度。结合新兴技术使评估模型更加数字化和动态化是未来城市安全发展状态评估的研究趋势。以上结论对城市安全发展状态评估模型构建具有一定指导意义。

To construct a scientifc evaluation model of urban safety development status and evaluate urban safety development status accurately and effectively,this paper combed the research status of evaluation system index construction from three perspectives of vulnerability,capacity and comprehensiveness,classified and analysed the characteristics and application scope of qualitative,quantitative,semi-quantitative and new evaluation methods,collated evaluation models and standards of foreign cities,summarized the current deficiencies and future development trends of the urban safety development status evaluation model.The results showed that the supply of basic theoretical research was insufficient,the index system was lack of foresight,and partial evaluation methods had limitations at the present stage.Future evaluation model should pay more attention to the source of urban safety development,and the index system should be cross-integrated with different disciplines and perspectives.It is the research trend of future urban safety development state assessment to make the assessment model more digital and dynamic by combining with emerging technologies.The conclusions above have specifc guiding signifcance for the construction of the evaluation model of urban security development state.