中国防台抗台的变化:基于典型案例的比较研究

Evolution of Typhoon Prevention and Resistance in China: a Comparative Study Based on Typical Cases

中国是世界上受台风影响最为严重的国家之一,随着经济社会不断发展和国家治理体系不断完善,防台抗台工作从管理理念、管理过程、管理制度、管理保障等方面都发生了重大变化。本文运用"理念—能力—基础"的分析框架,从防台抗台理念的提升转变、台风灾害应对的过程管理、基础设施的源头治理三个维度,选取维奥娜台风(编号6903,Viola),桑美台风(编号0608,Saomai)和莫兰蒂台风(编号1614,Meranti)三个案例进行比较研究,刻画新中国成立以来我国防台抗台工作呈现的变化,集中表现为树立以人为本的发展理念,从人财兼顾向生命至上转变;气象监测预报预警能力、应急处突能力不断提高,从依靠经验向依靠科学转变;探索以防为主的主动型应急管理模式,从灾后救援向源头治理转变,研究还初步验证了"理念—能力—基础"分析框架的适用性与解释力。

China is one of the countries most vulnerable to typhoons on a global scale.With the ever-growing social economy and constant improvement of the national governance system,great changes have taken place in terms of management philosophy,management process,management systems and management guarantee when it comes to typhoon prevention and resistance.Based on the analytical framework of“philosophy-capacity-foundation”,three cases of Typhoon Viola(Code 6903,Viola),Typhoon Saomai(Code 0608,Saomai)and Typhoon Meranti(Code 1614,Meranti)were compared in this paper from the perspectives of concept promotion and transformation of typhoon prevention and resistance,process management of typhoon disaster response and source management of infrastructure to present the changes in China’s efforts for typhoon prevention and resistance since the founding of new China.The changes centered on the establishment of people-oriented development concept,the transformation from giving considerations to both people and belongings to life first;the constant improvement of meteorological monitoring,forecasting and early warning,and emergency response capabilities;transformation from experience-based to science-based;exploration of prevention-based proactive emergency management mode and transformation from post-disaster rescue to source management.The study preliminarily verified the applicability and explanatory power of the analytical framework of“philosophy-capacity-foundation”.