职业噪声汇总暴露值对35~39岁中国和全球人口听力损失造成的伤残调整寿命年影响趋势的时间序列分析

Time series analysis of the impact of summary exposure value of occupational noise on disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)due to hearing loss among 35-39 years old in China and globally

目的本研究探讨中国与全球范围内职业噪声汇总暴露值(summary exposure value of occupational noise,SEV)对听力损失伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)的影响,并对未来5年的趋势进行预测,为下一步减轻职业噪声危害对健康的负面影响提供思路。方法本研究数据来源为1990年至2021全球疾病负担研究(global burden of disease study,GBD)数据库中(SEV)与35~39岁中国与全球人口听力损失造成的DALYs。分别对中国和全球上述两指标进行描述性分析和相关分析;利用自回归积分滑动平均(autoregressive integratedmovingaverage model,ARIMA)模型,预测未来5年的职业噪声SEV和因职业暴露导致听力损失造成的DALYs的变化情况。结果1990年以来,在我国35~39岁人群中,因听力损失造成的DALYs自波动上升至顶峰2005年462844人年后波动下降,2021年为388843人年;全球数据显示出持续和显著的增长,整体高于中国水平,且二者差距逐渐增大;二者的增长趋势变化比较,存在相关关系(r=0.495,P<0.05)。因职业噪声暴露导致35~39岁人口听力损失的DALYs,在我国呈缓慢但持续的下降趋势;而全球的数据有所增加,一直高于中国且有增快趋势;二者变化的趋势相似(r=0.536,P<0.05)。根据时间序列分析得到,中国职业噪声SEV水平从1990年的16.59逐渐降至2026年的预计15.66,反映出对职业噪声进行控制防护,其措施的实施效果有效。全球数据从1990年的11.81缓慢上升至2026年的预计11.94,表明职业噪声控制可能不如中国有效,或者在某些地区的情况有所加剧。因职业暴露导致听力损失造成的DALYs,中国2021年为132239人年,预测2026年为135408人年,表明虽然有努力控制职业噪声,但疾病负担未有明显下降趋势;全球从1990年的305000人年增长至2021年的507492人年,并预计在2026年达到528843人年,听力损失问题更为严重。结论自1990年以来在35~39岁人群中,中国在职业噪声暴露防控方面的成效显著,但造成的疾病负担,仍然是职业卫生领域需要持续关注和改进的重点,后续应持续关注职业噪声对健康的影响。在全球范围内,因职业噪声暴露导致的听力损失问题预测有更加严重的趋势,需要国际间相互合作,以更加有效的策略来解决。

Objective This study investigates the impact of the Summary Exposure Value(SEV)of occupational noise on hearing loss DALYs in China and globally,and forecasts trends for the next five years,providing insights for reducing the negative health impacts of noise exposure.Methods Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study database for 1990 to 2021,focusing on the SEV of Occupational Noise and DALYs due to hearing loss among 35-39 years old in China and globally.Descriptive and correlational analyses were conducted for both China and the global data;using the ARIMA model,we forecasted the trends for the next five years in occupational noise SEV and DALYs resulting from occupational noise exposure.Results Since 1990s,in the 35-39 aged group,DALYs due to hearing loss in China showed fluctuations,peaking in 2005 with 462884 after a rise DALYs and then declining,with 388843 DALYs recorded in 2021.Globally,there was a continuous and significant increase,consistently higher than in China with a widening gap;there was no correlation between their growth trends(r=0.495,P<0.05).For DALYs due to occupational noise exposure in the same age group,China showed a slow but steady declining trend;globally,there was an increase,consistently above that of China and with an accelerating trend;the trends between the two were similar(r=0.536,P<0.05).Time series analysis revealed that Chinese occupational noise SEV for Occupational Noise decreased gradually from 16.59 in 1990 to an estimated 15.66 by 2026,indicating effective implementation of noise control measures,although an increasing trend was observed.Globally,it rose slowly from 11.81 in 1990 to an estimated 11.94 by 2026,suggesting less effective control than in China,or intensifying noise issues in certain regions.DALYs resulting from occupational exposure in China were 132239 in 2021,with a forecast of 135408 by 2026,indicating that despite efforts to control occupational noise,there was no significant decline in disease burden;globally,they increased from approximately 305000 in 1990 to 507492 in 2021,with an expected rise to 528843 by 2026,pointing to a more severe problem of hearing loss.Conclusions Since 1990,China has made significant progress in controlling occupational noise exposure among the 35-39 aged group,yet the disease burden remains a critical issue in occupational health that requires continuous attention and improvement.Globally,the problem of hearing loss due to occupational noise exposure appears to be worsening,necessitating international cooperation and more effective strategies.