支付视角下疫情对消费经济的影响效应

Impact of Epidemic on Consumer Economy via Transaction Data

新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济社会发展造成了前所未有的冲击,消费经济也受到了较大的影响。支付是与消费者最息息相关的经济活动,支付数据能够精准地捕获消费经济的特点。鉴于此,本文基于银联网络交易数据,量化了疫情对消费经济的影响,并对不同省份及行业进行了对比分析。同时,通过进一步分析疫情期间消费数据与疫情进展数据,定量揭示了疫情进展显著牵动消费信心,影响消费经济发展。若疫情得不到有效控制,复工复产则难以有效推进。本研究从支付的角度对后续疫情防控和经济全面复苏政策提出了相关建议。

The sudden COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented impact on China’s economic and social development,especially on consumer economy.Payment is the most closely related economic activity regarding consumers,the data of which can accurately capture the characteristic of the consumer economy.Given the point of view,this paper makes an in-depth exploration in the research direction of payment data.Based on the transaction data from China UnionPay,this paper quantifies the impact of the epidemic on consumer economy and makes a comparative analysis of different provinces and industries.The paper quantitatively reveals that the epidemic progress significantly affects the consumer confidence and the development of consumer economy.According to our analysis,it is unwise to restart work resumption when the epidemic is still not under effective control.From the perspective of payment,this paper profoundly tells about the story of how China fights against the epidemic and puts forward relevant suggestions for the follow-up epidemic prevention and control as well as the comprehensive economic recovery policies.