英国“脱欧”对国际贸易的影响

The impact of Brexit on international trade

关键提示对其他国家(包括中国在内)来说,充分考虑英国"脱欧"之后对国际贸易的各项潜在冲击,才能为过渡期之后的最坏情况做好准备,更大限度挖掘新的欧洲经济版图下的贸易潜力,把风险和成本降到最低。如果英国与欧盟达不成协议,双方贸易关系退回到WTO框架之中,按照最惠国(MFN)关税税率,欧盟对英国出口将面临4.5%左右的贸易加权平均关税.

From February 1,the UK will enter an 11-month transition period to leave the EU,during which the UK will continue to abide by EU rules and disciplines,and trade arrangements between the two sides will remain as they are.If no agreement between the UK and the EU,the two sides trade relations will be back to the WTO framework.According to the most favored nation(MFN)tariff rates,the EU is about 4.5%of British exports facing trade weighted average tariff,UK exports to the EU will face a 2.6%tariff.In processed food,auto parts and other fields,tariff levels will be even more than 7%.Trade policy’s uncertainty after the UK left the EU will affect the strategic capital investment decisions of multinational enterprises in warehouses,factories,logistics and others.For other countries including China,full consideration should be given to the potential impacts of Brexit on international trade,so as to prepare for the worst-case scenario after the transition period,tap the trade potential of the new European economic landscape to the maximum extent and minimize risks and costs.