佛手在川渝地区的生态适宜性及潜在分布

Ecological suitability and potential distribution of Citrus medica in the Sichuan-Chongqing region

基于实地调查、文献查阅获取的佛手分布点位数据,利用MaxEnt软件分析影响佛手分布的关键环境因子,构建川渝地区潜在种植分布预估模型,并结合CMIP6推出的未来3种气候情景数据,预估2050s(2041-2060年)和2090s(2081-2100年)川渝地区的适生区域,旨在为野生资源调查保护、生态修复及人工生产培育和产业发展等方面提供科学参考.结果表明:(1)年温度范围(Bio7)、年降水量(Bio12)、人类足迹(Hf)、海拔(El)和季节性降水变异系数(Bio15)是影响佛手分布的主要环境因子.(2)当前(2000-2020年)气候情景,佛手在渝地区的高适生区面积为9.45×10^(4)km^(2),主要分布在除四川盆地北部外的其他底部区域,地形以海拔低于500 m的平原、丘陵及平行岭谷区的低丘与平坝为主,另外川西南山地的河谷平原及低山亦有零散分布;中适生面积为9.93×10^(4)km^(2),主要分布在四川盆地西北部、重庆东部及攀西高原,沿着高适生区的边缘向外扩展,地形以海拔500-1000 m的低山区为主.(3)SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,佛手总适生面积先略微减小(2050s)然后增加(2090s);中适生及以上区域面积在SSP1-2.6情景下不断增加,在SSP2-4.5情景下小幅减小(2050s)后又小幅增加(2090s),在SSP5-8.5情景下先大幅增加(2050s)后又大幅减少(2090s).(4)佛手高适生区质心在不同年代分别向不同的方向移动,但从当代到2090s,质心主要是向盆东北方向移动.因此,当前及未来情景不同时段,佛手在川渝地区以盆地底部区域为主要适生区,未来气候变化在一定的阈值内对佛手种植有促进作用.

This study aimed to provide a scientific reference for the investigation and protection of wild resources,ecological restoration,artificial production and cultivation,and industrial development.Based on the distribution data of Citrus medica in the Sichuan-Chongqing region of China,obtained from investigation and literature,MaxEnt software was used to analyze the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.medica and to build a prediction model of the potential planting distribution in the Sichuan-Chongqing region.Combined with the three future climate scenarios released by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),suitable areas for C.medica in the Sichuan-Chongqing region in the 2050s(2041–2060)and 2090s(2081–2100)were estimated using the prediction model.The results show that:annual range temperature(Bio7),annual precipitation(Bio12),human footprint index(Hf),elevation(El),and precipitation seasonality(Bio15)are the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of C.medica.At present(2000–2020),the highly-suitable area for C.medica in the Sichuan-Chongqing region is 9.45×10^(4)km^(2),mainly distributed in the bottom of the Sichuan Basin except in the northern part;the landforms are mainly plains,hills and low mounds,and flat dams in a parallel ridge valley area with an elevation of less than 500 m,and the valley plain and low mountain in southwest Sichuan are also scattered.The moderately-suitable area is 9.93×10^(4)km^(2),mainly distributed in the northwest of the Sichuan Basin and the east of Chongqing and the Panxi plateau,extending outward along the edge of the highly-suitable area in the low mountain area with an altitude of 500–1000 m.Under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the total suitable area will decrease slightly(2050s)and then increase(2090s).The moderately-suitable area will increase continuously under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,decrease slightly in the 2050s and then increase slightly in the 2090s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,and increase sharply in the 2050s and then decrease sharply in the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The barycenters of the highlysuitable areas for C.medica move in different directions in different ages,but the total direction of movement is northeast from the present to the 2090s.Under the current period and different periods of the future scenarios,the main suitable area for C.medica in the Sichuan-Chongqing region is the bottom area of the basin,and future climate change will promote the planting of C.medica within a certain threshold.