六十年来西南地区气象干旱灾害及气候环境变化

The Meteorological Drought Disasters and Climate Change over 60Years in Southwest China

基于国家水利部、气象局系统六十多年来逐年逐日实测原始资料(10万个测站数据并有机整合),运用多种指标体系分析气候环境变化历史过程,采用现有1960~2011年西南地区(102~107°E、25~32°N)主要控制测站逐月降水资料、NCEP再分析资料,分析了我国西南地区1960~2011年来旱涝时空变化特征以及典型干旱年份、多雨年份大气环流特征、水汽输送特征、蒸发量变化和气象干旱程度、干旱区划.结果表明:统计期间,西南地区1961、1968、1976、1999年为多雨偏涝年,1977、1982、2003、2006、2009、2010、2011年为严重少雨干旱年,尤其2009~2011年的3年是区域自1960年以来年降水量最少的年份.

The historical process of climate change was analyzed with a variety of index system on the basis of the original daily data obtained over the 60 years between 1960 and 2011 from the organically integrated 100000 stations of the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorological Bureau.The existing monthly precipitation data of the main control stations in the southwest(102~107°E,25~32°N)area and NCEP reanalysis data were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation from 1960 to 2011 years in the area,the characteristics of atmospheric circulation and water vapor transmission in typical drought years and rainy years,change in evaporation and degree of meteorological drought,and drought area classification.The results show that during the statistical period,1961,1968,1976 and 1999 in the southwest are rainy;the years of 1977,1982,2003,2006,2009,2010,and 2011 are droughty with little rain,and 2009~2011 have the least annual rainfall since 1960 in this area.